26 Apr Gracenote’s Data Analytics Predicts Winners and Losers of 2016 Rio Olympics
USA, China and Russia Top Medal Counts
Spain, Argentina, Italy and Ukraine Show Steady Declines
April 26, 2016 – Gracenote®, the world’s leading provider of entertainment data and subsidiary of Tribune Media Company (NYSE: TRCO), is using its sports data expertise to predict which countries and athletes will step up at the 2016 Summer Olympic Games if the games were held today.
Using performance data from thousands of events and an extensive Olympic database dating back more than 100 years, Gracenote Sports is forecasting the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country. The company’s “Virtual Medal Table” organizes these complicated data models and presents them in simple to understand predictions, enabling broadcasters, media publishers and pay TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across their Web, mobile and broadcast properties.
“As the global leader in entertainment data, Gracenote has the unique ability to help companies around the world become destinations for 2016 Olympic Games coverage,” said Noah Fischbach, General Manager of Sports at Gracenote. “By implementing Gracenote hosted solutions, our customers can effortlessly deliver facts and figures, predictions and editorial content that capture the high drama of the Games and build viewer engagement up to and throughout the 17 day-long global competition.”
If the games were held today, Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table predicts the following:
- U.S.A. will continue to dominate the overall competition with a combined 102 medals (42 gold, 29 silver and 31 bronze).
- China will be in second place with 78 total medals (31 gold, 26 silver and 21 bronze).
- Russia will take third place with 66 medals (22 gold, 22, silver and 22 bronze).
- Host country, Brazil, is predicted to take home 25 medals (9 gold, 8 silver and 8 bronze) – a new record
“Predicting winners and losers is challenging because one minor mishap or injury can change the entire medal count for a team in the Olympic Games,” said Simon Gleave, Head of Analysis at Gracenote Sports. “Gracenote uses various data signals, advance analysis and a unique algorithm to predict how athletes across Olympic sports – and therefore their home countries – are likely to perform. Several National Olympic Committees use Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table analysis to select athletes to develop and sport competitions to pursue, as well as understand how best to allocate resources for the highest ROI.”
The top three sports based on popularity at the Summer Games are swimming, artistic gymnastics and athletics (track and field). According to Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table, Team U.S.A. is projected to be the top winner in these three Olympic sports, bringing home 31 medals for athletics, 24 for swimming and 8 for gymnastics. Following Team U.S.A. will be Australia, bringing home 18 medals (17 in swimming and one in athletics), and Kenya with 17 medals in athletics.
Additionally, Gracenote predicts that many of the top performing individual athletes at the Olympics will hail from the U.S., Australia and China. While some of these athletes are perennial top contenders, Gracenote believes the world can expect to see some newcomers on the podium as well. Here are a few athletes to keep an eye on and how they are expected to perform:
- Michael Phelps, U.S.A.: Five gold medals (100m butterfly, 200m butterfly, 200m individual medley, 4×100 medley, 4x200m freestyle), and one bronze medal (4x100m freestyle)
- Simone Biles, U.S.A.: Four gold medals (beam, floor, individual all-around, team) and one silver medal (vault)
- Katie Ledecky, U.S.A.: Four gold medals (200m freestyle, 400m freestyle, 800m freestyle, 4x200m freestyle)
- Emily Seebohm, Australia: Three gold medals (100m backstroke, 200m backstroke, 4x100m freestyle) and one silver medal (4x100m medley)
- Ma Long, China: Two gold medals (table tennis singles and team)
Despite its estimated third place on the podium, Russia is predicted to win 13 fewer medals at the Rio Games than at the London Games in 2012 according to Gracenote’s current Virtual Medal Table standings. This could challenge the worst performance by Russia since the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 (63 medals at Atlanta 1996). Other countries that are projected to experience sub-par performances are Spain, Argentina, Italy, Ukraine and Belarus.
- Argentina is predicted to claim just two medals, which would be its lowest return since Barcelona 1992.
- Spain’s medal total is expected to fall for the fourth successive Olympics.
- Italy is forecast to win four fewer medals than its lowest total from the last five Olympics (27 at Beijing 2008).
- Ukraine is projected to win 19 medals, one fewer than its worst Olympic performance (20 at London 2012).
- Belarus is predicted to win seven medals, five fewer than at London 2012, which was the country’s lowest medal haul up to that time.
For a closer look at the full Virtual Medal Table, its features and methodology, please visit: http://sportsdemo1.gracenote.com/documentation/vmt.
Gracenote acquired Infostrada Sports and SportsDirect in May 2015 and launched Gracenote Sports. These acquisitions made Gracenote the first global provider of music, video and sports data, transforming the company into a one-stop data solutions provider serving a roster of top-tier customers around the world. Today, Gracenote Sports offers rich data on 4,500 of the world’s most popular leagues and competitions as well as a deep trove of historical Olympics information going back to the very first modern games in 1896.
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